Nigerian Headline Inflation Test New Highs to Print at 21.82%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI)/Headline Inflation/All Item Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, rose by 21.82% Year-on-Year (YoY) in Jan’23, representing the first acceleration after moderating in December 2022. This is 0.47% higher than the rate recorded in Dec ’22 (21.34%) and 6.22% in Jan ’22 (15.60%).

Also, on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the Headline inflation Index inched higher for the third consecutive month to 1.87% in Jan ’23; this is a 0.15% increase from the rate (1.71%) recorded in the previous month (Dec’ 22). The rise in headline inflation rate was driven mainly by the higher fuel prices caused by lingering fuel scarcity as petrol prices oscillated around N185-N300 per liter nationwide.

The Food Inflation

The Food sub-index rose by 24.32% YoY in Jan ’23 compared to 23.75% in Dec ’22 and 17.13% in Jan ’22; this represents a 0.56% and 7.19% increase compared to Dec ’22 and Jan ’22, respectively. However, on an MoM basis, the food inflation rate accelerated to 2.08% in Jan ’23, a 0.20% increase from 1.89% recorded in Dec ’22. The rise was due to the price appreciation of some food items like Bread and Cereals, Oil & fat, vegetables, Fish, Potatoes, & Tubers, Fruits, etc.

The Core Inflation/ The All Items Less Farm Produce

The “All Items less farm produce” or “Core Inflation,” which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce, surged by 19.16% YoY in Jan ’23, up by 0.66% and 5.29% when compared with Dec ’22 (18.49%) and Jan ’22 (13.87%) rates. However, on an MoM basis, the core sub-index accelerated to 1.82% in Jan ’23, against the rate recorded in Dec ’22 (1.33%). The highest increases were recorded in prices of Gas, Liquid fuel, Solid fuel, Passenger transport by Air, road, and Solid fuel. 

The Food Inflation

The Food sub-index rose by 24.32% YoY in Jan ’23 compared to 23.75% in Dec ’22 and 17.13% in Jan ’22; this represents a 0.56% and 7.19% increase compared to Dec ’22 and Jan ’22, respectively. However, on an MoM basis, the food inflation rate accelerated to 2.08% in Jan ’23, a 0.20% increase from 1.89% recorded in Dec ’22. The rise was due to the price appreciation of some food items like Bread and Cereals, Oil & fat, vegetables, Fish, Potatoes, & Tubers, Fruits, etc.

The Core Inflation/ The All Items Less Farm Produce

The “All Items less farm produce” or “Core Inflation,” which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce, surged by 19.16% YoY in Jan ’23, up by 0.66% and 5.29% when compared with Dec ’22 (18.49%) and Jan ’22 (13.87%) rates. However, on an MoM basis, the core sub-index accelerated to 1.82% in Jan ’23, against the rate recorded in Dec ’22 (1.33%). The highest increases were recorded in prices of Gas, Liquid fuel, Solid fuel, Passenger transport by Air, road, and Solid fuel. 

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