Nigerian GDP Expanded by 2.31% in Q1’2023

According to data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.31 percent (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2023, compared with 3.11 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2022 and 3.52 percent in the preceding quarter.

The economy moderated on its current recovery trajectory, posting positive, albeit lower growth, for the tenth consecutive quarter, in spite of a multitude of headwinds to its full recovery.

Growth Drivers

The growth performance was driven largely by the sustained growth in the services and agricultural sectors; progressive uptrend in economic activities across several sub-sectors; and sustenance of broad-based support by the Bank in growth-enhancing sectors.

Staff projections showed that output growth recovery is expected to continue reasonably in 2023, given the significant improvements in the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which rose to 51.1 index points in April 2023 from 42.6 index points in March 2023.

The Committee noted the persisting uptick in inflation, as headline inflation (year-on-year) rose to 22.22 percent in April 2023 from 22.04 percent in the previous month. While this amounted to a moderate increase of 0.18 percentage points. The recent uptick was driven largely by the increase in both the food and core components, which rose moderately to 24.61 and 20.14 percent in April 2023 from 24.45 and 19.86 percent, respectively, in March 2023.

Outlook

The broad outlook for the full recovery of both the global and domestic economies remained clouded by legacy and emerging risks.  Available data and forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators in the Nigerian economy suggest that the economy will continue on a moderate recovery path through 2023 as legacy headwinds linger. These include insecurity in food-producing areas; the high cost of energy and the rising cost of debt servicing. Accordingly, the economy is forecast to grow in 2023 by 3.03 percent (CBN), 3.75 percent (FGN) and 3.29 percent (IMF), and 3.35 percent (PFI Capital).